“The study simulated future climate scenarios and assessed the potential impact of various urban adaptation measures”
The thermal modelling developed identifies areas that have the greatest exposure to overheating and provides guidance on the most effective deployment of nature-based solutions to help define better urban policies
Rising temperatures and more frequent extreme heat events are transforming living conditions in towns and cities. TECNALIA has developed a high resolution thermal model of Bilbao’s urban areas. The work identified the areas that are most exposed to heat stress and provided support for decision-making in cities to improve resilience to climate change .
- The study was based on the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) index and included key climate variables such as air temperature, humidity, solar radiation and ventilation.
- Unlike analyses based solely on temperature, this methodology provides a more realistic assessment of the heat risk to people in public spaces.
Urban areas with greater heat exposure
The modelling focused on the five middle hours of a typical summer’s day, when the heat is at its most intense, and used a risk threshold of 29.5ºC as a reference.
- The results showed that 13 of Bilbao’s 40 neighbourhoods have areas where levels exceeded this threshold for several hours a day, particularly in densely populated areas with a high proportion of paved surfaces.
- By contrast, areas with green spaces, trees or bodies of water nearby, such as the estuary, have a moderating effect on temperature, reducing both the intensity of the heat and duration of exposure.
Data for designing effective urban solutions
One of the distinguishing features of the work we carried out is its forward-looking nature . The model did not only describe the current situation, but also made it possible to simulate future climate scenarios and assess the potential impact of various urban adaptation measures.
These measures include:
- Increase and better distribution of green areas and trees.
- Reduction of hard and paved surfaces.
- Creation of green corridors to encourage natural ventilation.
The analysis showed that the appropriate implementation of these solutions can significantly reduce the number of urban areas with high levels of heat stress for users, even in scenarios with moderate rises in average temperature.
In this regard, one of the main findings of the study was the identification hot-spots in the city. At these points, micro-scale thermal modelling would make it possible to design specific solutions adapted to each environment. This approach makes it possible to translate analyses carried out in towns and cities into targeted interventions in urban projects, defining where and how to apply the various solutions studied with greater precision.
Technology at the service of urban planning
Thermal modelling is part of TECNALIA's commitment to putting technology at the service of sustainable urban planning, providing objective tools for planning healthier, more inclusive cities that are better prepared for the climate of the future.
The study reinforced the importance of incorporating thermal comfort into urban policies as a social welfare issue, particularly in cities with ageing populations that are vulnerable to extreme heat.