Meteorological prediction for a reduction in costs of the energy systems through more precise calculation of the ampacity of the cables, so as to optimise the power lines installed to absorb and steer the excess electricity into a new energy system, with an increased penetration of renewable energy and decentralised generation.
The ampacity, the maximum current that can pass through a cable without it undergoing heat damage depends on the wind, temperature and solar radiation. Obtaining realistic estimates of how the ampacity in a power line is going to evolve requires a quality meteorological prediction that is prepared for high resolutions. To do so, a combination of numerical, data assimilation and statistical techniques have been carried out.
Some of the tools that have been used are:
- WRF
- 3DVAR / 4DVAR
- EnKF
- ARIMA
- MOS
As a result of the experience accumulated, methodologies derived from machine learning, grouping by k-means and similar are now being incorporated in order to achieve a greater approximation to the hyperlocal weather.
